Temporal validation of the UKPDS outcomes model using 10-year posttrial monitoring data

Abstract

OBJECTIVE - To evaluate the accuracy of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model (UKPDS-OM) in predicting clinical outcomes during the UKPDS posttrial monitoring (PTM) period. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - At trial end in 1997, the 4,031 surviving UKPDS patients, of the 5,102 originally enrolled in the study, returned to their usual care providers, with no attempts made to maintain them in their randomized therapy groups. PTM risk factor data were collected for 5 years and clinical outcome data for 10 years. The UKPDS-OM was used firstly to forecast likely progression of HbA1c, systolic blood pressure, total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio, and smoking status and secondly to estimate the li..